Better Year End Economic Indicators… for the Country and South Lake Tahoe

December 27th, 2011 categories: Buyers Report, For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

Better Year-End Economic News

Rising Consumer Confidence, Lower Housing Prices, Falling Jobless Claims, Historic Low Interest Rates are hopeful signs.

Here's a few reports that have come in through the holidays that we find encouraging. All are hopeful about a recovering economy (yes, we too wish it were faster), and all are good news for home buyers looking for South Lake Tahoe opportunities in the new year.

CNNMoney.comThis first article came out just before Christmas, and it finds the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits dropped to their lowest level since April 2008, boosting optimism in the job market. (here)

Associated PressThis next article came out today, and in it Case Schiller finds that housing prices dropped in 19 of 20 top US cities in October. We find it interesting that this is phrased as "housing recovery will be bumpy in 2012" rather than this is good news for home buyers, which lower prices always are. (here)

This article also came out today and it states the U.S. economy will grow faster in 2012 – if it isn't knocked off track by upheavals in Europe. (here)

Next today (it has been a good day for news) comes an article that says Americans are gaining faith that the economy is on the upswing. The monthly Consumer Confidence Index surged to the highest level since April and is approaching a post-recession peak. (here)

Though not found in a particular article, today's average mortgage interest rates are on average below 4%. We find these here, and this coupled with lower home prices are bountiful news for today's interested South Lake Tahoe home buyer.

Previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts you may find resourceful:

Dec 13, 2011: US Housing Affordability Now at Record High
Dec 12, 2011: South Lake Tahoe, CA Home Values and Distressed Sales right now
Oct 2, 2011: More South Lake Tahoe, CA Home Value is Q3 Trend
Jul 6, 2011: Q2 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA Real Estate Report
Apr 2, 2011: Q1 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA Real Estate Report
Jan 2, 2011: 2010 South Lake Tahoe Housing Demand Report
Nov 16, 2010: What People are Buying: South Lake Tahoe 2010 Home Sales per Month
Nov 15, 2010: South Lake Tahoe 2010 Home Sales: Where We Are Now
Oct 9, 2010: Analysis of 2010 South Lake Tahoe, CA homes for sale
Oct 2, 2010: On Target with South Lake Tahoe, CA Homes for sale
August 31, 2010: US Home Prices Up… what about South Lake Tahoe?
August 27, 2010: I Woke Up this Morning… to the South Lake Tahoe Blues.
July 1, 2010: South Lake Tahoe Foreclosures: No Change Yet.
May 15, 2010: Where is the New Foreclosures Deluge?
November 15, 2009: Foreclosure Filings Down in October, what does it mean?

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

So, Who does S & P Blame?

August 8th, 2011 categories: About Us, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

downgrade

Blame is much less important than solution, one presumes.

Yup, some of you may be pleased, this is our last post about things political for a while. This comes from CNN, and it's about the S & P downgrade, of course.

The article is entitled: "Questions abound after agency downgrades U.S. credit rating", and it's here in full.

Of particular interest to us were comments made by John Chambers, head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor. When asked about factors that led to the S&P downgrade decision, or who's fault it is, he made, without citing political party or politician, the following statements.

Before that though, we do have our interpretation of what Chambers says here, and we're rather confident others might see the exact same differently. Our opinion therefore really doesn't matter much here, whatever it might be; the point is what do you think?

John Chambers' comments are:

  • "Political brinkmanship over the debt ceiling proved to be a key issue, with the U.S. government getting to the last day before they had cash-management problems."
  • "Few governments separate the budget process from the debt-authorization process as the United States does."
  • "Though the budget deal that finally was reached will deliver at least $2.1 trillion in savings over the next decade, that will not suffice."
  • "This is a problem that's been a long time in the making — well over this administration, the prior administration."
  • "Congress should shoulder some of the blame."
  • "The first thing Congress could have done is to have raised the debt ceiling in a timely manner so that much of this debate had been avoided to begin with, as it had done 60 or 70 times since 1960 without that much debate."
  • "The decision by Congress about whether to extend the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts is one crucial area. That could produce another $950 billion toward debt reduction."

Our other recent posts on the debt ceiling nonsense, jobs and our economy:

Aug 7, 2011: The Top Ten Job Killing Companies Right Now
Aug 6, 2011: Water, Mars and a good place for THEM.
Aug 5, 2011: Job Growth? Who Knew?
Jul 28, 2011: A Better Jobs Report… amid this Political Nonsense!
May 8, 2011:  A Good Jobs Report
Mar 4, 2011: Jobs Report: Good News for all of Us, and South Lake Tahoe too.
Mar 3, 2011: Caution: positive South Lake Tahoe housing news found here
Feb 10, 2011: More Better Economic News for South Lake Tahoe

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

The Top Ten Job Killing Companies (none in South Lake Tahoe)

August 7th, 2011 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news

Loss of jobs is at the foot of both political parties

Instead of blaming somebody else, why don't we all serve notice… on those who aren't serving?

In economic times like these, when jobs are a premium priority, have you ever noticed that almost everything the political party in power does is considered "job-killing" by the other party? And it doesn't matter which party is in power, or not, because the party not in power always blames the other party for everything?

It's either all Bush's fault, or all Obama's fault, but it's never our fault for electing those who serve. I have both conservative friends and family, liberal ones too, and I know this: all of us have been hurt one way or another in recent years, and it's plenty time enough for it to stop.

Am thinking we're Americans first, then subordinately members of one party or the other, or not, if we so choose. Humanity trumps party in any event, we believe.

Am not sure what hurts us worse, seeing good folks we try to help who are upside down on their house, and some who have lost everything, or seeing what has happened to our once much healthier housing industry. It's like our industry, maybe more than most, has been under a lengthy medieval siege.

We of course realize there were abuses in our industry, but truth is that buck stops with the banks, and a lot of greed, and unchecked excess unto it all. And we think that's a politically safe position to assert… because both parties have had their hands in that. Big time!

The post below is obviously a political spoof, one that was surprisingly cathartic, and with this post, and the next one coming, we'll be done with anything political for a while, and we hope you appreciate that our POV is "all of us", rather than anything else, and anything else other than "all of us" just won't do..

In the meantime, here's a list of the top ten companies that are cutting jobs these days. Source is CNNMoney.com (article trail here).

1. HSBC (25,000 jobs lost)

2. Merck (13,000 jobs lost)

3. Borders (10,700 jobs lost)

4. Cisco (6,500 jobs lost)

5. Pfizer (5,530 jobs lost)

6. Lockheed Martin (3,300 jobs lost)

7. Research in Motion (2,000 jobs lost)

8. Credit Suisse (2,000 jobs lost)

9. Boston Scientific (1,200 jobs lost)

10. Goldman Sachs (1,000 jobs lost)

Previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts about jobs:

Aug 5, 2011: Job Growth? Who Knew?
Jul 28, 2011: A Better Jobs Report… amid this Political Nonsense!
May 8, 2011:  A Good Jobs Report
Mar 4, 2011: Jobs Report: Good News for all of Us, and South Lake Tahoe too.
Mar 3, 2011: Caution: positive South Lake Tahoe housing news found here
Feb 10, 2011: More Better Economic News for South Lake Tahoe

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

Plunging Interest Rates Help South Lake Tahoe Home Buyers

August 3rd, 2011 categories: Buyers Report, For Buyers, Interest Rates, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

South Lake Tahoe home buyers should take advantage of these low interest rates.

Interest rates and prices this low? It doesn't get any better for South Lake Tahoe home buyers than this!

Trying to find a silver lining in the recent debt-fiasco cloud, perhaps plunging mortgage interest rates is it. That's what happened today, with mortgage interest rates hitting new lows in some cases. All we can say is good for South Lake Tahoe home buyers. Bravo!

CNNMoney.com logoToday's report via CNNMoney.com states that the 30-year fixed rate, usually the most popular choice for home buyers, fell to 4.45% from 4.57% last week — its lowest point since last November, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Meanwhile, the rate on the less popular 15-year fixed plunged to a new record low of 3.52%, down from 3.67% a week earlier.

(full article here)
 

Some previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts:

Jul 12, 2011: A Heads up on Mortgage Bank Relief
May 5, 2011: Interesting Interest Rates
Jun 11, 2010: Talking Low Interest Rates
April 10, 2010, An Interest in Interest Rates
April 27, 2010, You Still Get a 5% Can Mortgage?

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

A Good Jobs Report: Good for South Lake Tahoe and all housing markets

May 8th, 2011 categories: Buyers Report, For Buyers, For Sellers, Interest Rates, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

May 6, 2011 Jobs Report is a good one

With Jobs picking up steam, the South Lake Tahoe real estate market, and home values, will eventually follow.

We thought this news significant enough to let it get past its news cycle… and then review it again. The jobs report that came out last Friday was a good one, rather unexpected, and it's a continuum of reports like this that will eventually signify the return of home value growth, not only in South Lake Tahoe, but in all housing markets.

There were lots of different reports throughout the media on Friday, but there was only one set of facts. We're providing you to three of the reports here, and we'll look at one in particular.

CNN logoThe article we thought most persuasive was a CNN news analysis  entitled, "Jobs Matter, Employment Rate Doesn't" (here). Here are some of the key bullet points:

  • There are more than 9% people unemployed: the rate would actually be much higher if all of them were counted– more like 16% or 17%.
  • This uptick to 9% shows that more people are returning to the work force. Some of these are those who have given up looking for work are not counted in the official unemployment rate. 113,000 people who weren't counted as unemployed in March jumped back into the labor force in April.
  • The only number that matters is the number of jobs created – 244K in April; WAY more than the most optimistic economists were hoping, and within striking distance of the threshold number of 300,000 news jobs the economy needs to be creating per month to get back down to the 5% unemployment rate before the recession.
  • We also saw the jobs-created numbers for February and March revised higher. April's gains aren't some kind of blip– they are spread across a broad range of industries: retail, business and professional services, health care, manufacturing.
  • Bottom line: April's jobs report is a good, solid one. The job gains still may not be enough to lower the unemployment rate, especially as we see more people try to find jobs. But it shows the economy is moving in the right direction, and hiring is gaining meaningful momentum.

In summary, It is that magic 300,000 jobs per month that we're looking for. What that starts to happen, it will not be long before interest rates go up, which will mark the inevitable ascent toward higher home prices and an eventual sellers market. In other words, home buyers do pay attention now.

Associated PressAnother article we read about this was, "Businesses Now Hiring at Fastest Pace Since 2006" (here).

The last article, "Hiring Picks up Steam" was by CNNMoney.com (here).

Previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts about jobs:

Mar 24, 2011: Jobs Report Continues in Right Direction
Mar 4, 2011: Jobs Report: Good News for all of Us, and South Lake Tahoe too.
Mar 3, 2011: Caution: positive South Lake Tahoe housing news found here
Feb 10, 2011: More Better Economic News for South Lake Tahoe
Dec 31, 2010: Much Better Jobs News, and that's good for South Lake Tahoe
Dec 19, 2010: Is the US Economy Getting Better… a Good Day for South Lake Tahoe on the Recovery Path
Dec 5, 2010: More Insight into the US Labor Market: is Productivity a Culprit?
Dec 3, 2010: Today's US Unemployment Numbers
Dec 1, 2010: Even Better U.S. Job News
Nov 24, 2010: The Best Jobs Report in Two Years

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

Building Permits at all time low… what about South Lake Tahoe?

March 17th, 2011 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Interest Rates, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, Our Seminars, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

South Lake Tahoe new home salesDon't let national news with little bearing on South Lake Tahoe cause you to miss these historic low interest rates.

This CNNMoney.com article starts off with "the housing market just can't seem to catch a break." The basis for the phrase is February housing permits for future construction is at an all-time low.

The author, Annalyn Chensky, a CNN staff reporter, presumably finds that the housing market is based on construction permits. Catching a break starts and stops there, apparently. Historic low interest rates, a wide array of choice, the lowest home prices in almost ten years, all culminating in the most favorable buying conditions in decades is subordinate to February construction permits, we guess.

CnnMoney.com logoWell, the truth is we guess not, and especially so in South Lake Tahoe where new home construction is always a scant mix in our overall real estate market climate.

The chart below indicates all new home sales in South Lake Tahoe, CA since 2005.

South Lake Tahoe, CA new home sales since 20050

As this chart indicates, we're using the term "new home sale" to indicate any home built and sold in the same year, and the greatest percentage of sales we have seen in new home construction in the last 5 years is 4.8% in 2006. The greatest number of new South Lake Tahoe new home sales in any one year in the last five years is 24 in 2005.

What articles like this, and an opening sentence like the one above, does more specifically is affect buyer confidence. Most simply are not comfortable cutting through the chatter and opinion-plenty of real estate news to get to the bottom of where the spin is, if any.

You might want to check out the video series that we are just starting that comes from our recent real estate seminar. We talk about real estate news, and how to best look at it, and understand it, throughout. It's in fact one of the key themes in our seminar that repeats itself in various examples.

The CNN article here.

Now that you know new home construction reports have little to no effect on South Lake Tahoe, here's a couple of bullet points from the article:

  • This was the lowest level seen since the government started tracking the figures in 1959, and much worse than economists had expected.
  • Uncertainty about the job market and rising gas and food prices are still keeping potential homebuyers on the sidelines, even as mortgage rates and home prices are at attractive lows.

We included this bullet point above because it does have something to do with South Lake Tahoe. It all has to do with perception and buyer fear. As we frequently discuss here, a home buyer's two great fears are (1) missing something and (2) paying too much.

What we do in great detail in Part 2 of our real estate seminar is address these two fears. The short version about the fear of paying too much is simply this: if a buyer lets a national article like this causes him to wait on buying in South Lake Tahoe, and interest rates go up by 1 point from where they are today, the difference in the monthly mortgage payment will be about $50,000 over the term of the loan.

Mar 3, 2011: Caution, positive South Lake Tahoe Real estate News found here
Feb 10, 2011: More Better Economic News for South Lake Tahoe
Dec 31, 2010: Much Better Jobs News, and that's good for South Lake Tahoe
Dec 19, 2010: Is the US Economy Getting Better… a Good Day for South Lake Tahoe on the Recovery Path
Dec 5, 2010: More Insight into the US Labor Market: is Productivity a Culprit?
Dec 3, 2010: Today's US Unemployment Numbers
Dec 1, 2010: Even Better U.S. Job News
Nov 24, 2010: The Best Jobs Report in Two Years
May 6, 2010: More US Jobs Reports
Apr 28, 2010: US Jobs News, is it Hopeful?
Apr 2, 2010: A March Toward Job Growth
Dec 17, 2009: Jobless Claims, two different points of view

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

More Better Economic News for South Lake Tahoe

February 10th, 2011 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

Better economic news for South Lake Tahoe... its about jobs, man!For South Lake Tahoe, we'd like even better news… but it's not getting worse.

Three recent articles say our economy continues to improve slightly, and that's good for South Lake Tahoe. We think it still wise to temper anything suggesting good news, but what is apparent for sure is we're not seeing worse news. All of us have had plenty enough of that.

The news here has much to do about jobs, and inflation, or the lack of it, and as we've been writing about for the last few years, we're not going to see real growth in the housing industry  until we see a growth in jobs.

Amid these better news times, we might add, the South Lake Tahoe median sold price continues to decline slightly: it's $282,05 00 now (not including Tahoe Keys). It was $285,000 a couple of weeks ago, and it was $299,000 for all of 2010. We don't know how else to take this in: this is even better news for South Lake Tahoe home buyers, especially since mortgage interest rates remain near historic lows. (median sold prices here)

The following are thumbnails of these recent articles, starting with that of a few hours ago:

"Jobless Claims fall to 2 1/2 year low." (CNNMoney.com, full article here)
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years last week. This is also the lowest level since July 5, 2008.

"Republicans grill Bernanke over Inflation Threat." (Associated Press, full article here)
Bernanke downplays inflation risks to the U.S. economy. He suggests that the Fed will stick with a bond-buying plan through June, as scheduled, which is aimed at invigorating the economy by lowering rates on loans and boosting prices on stocks.

"Unemployment falls to 9 percent, nearly 2-year low." (Associated Press, full article here)
The unemployment rate is sinking at the fastest pace in half a century because a surprisingly large number of people say they're finding work.

Previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts:

Dec 31, 2010: Much Better Jobs News, and that's good for South Lake Tahoe
Dec 19, 2010: Is the US Economy Getting Better… a Good Day for South Lake Tahoe on the Recovery Path
Dec 5, 2010: More Insight into the US Labor Market: is Productivity a Culprit?
Dec 3, 2010: Today's US Unemployment Numbers
Dec 1, 2010: Even Better U.S. Job News
Nov 24, 2010: The Best Jobs Report in Two Years
May 6, 2010: More US Jobs Reports
Apr 28, 2010: US Jobs News, is it Hopeful?
Apr 2, 2010: A March Toward Job Growth
Dec 17, 2009: Jobless Claims, two different points of view

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

Recent National Economic and Real Estate News and comments about South Lake Tahoe, CA

January 25th, 2011 categories: Buyers Report, For Buyers, For Sellers, Foreclosures, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA

National real estate news and South Lake Tahoe, CAIncreasingly, the news is getting better, and that's good for South Lake Tahoe.

We though it would be helpful to list a few recent news items we've seen. We'll comment on each one briefly as it might relate to South Lake Tahoe.

Some of this news is better for the US economy, some not exactly, but the overall impression we are getting is the economy is improving slightly, and the jobs market, while better, is not improving enough yet to affect the current 9.4% employment rate.

"Consumer Confidence Hits 8-Month High" (Associated Press, here)
This report suggests that people are starting to feel better about the job market. While confidence is distant from what signals a healthy consumer mindset, the January report detailed in the AP article says that improvement was better than expected. Some economists said the big tax relief package Congress passed in late December may have helped.

What's good about this for South Lake Tahoe, CA is what we discuss much about below. Consumer perception may not be real, but it is reality. Remember, although buying a house is a very big ticket item, it is still based on an emotional decision. And our emotions are always better… when we are more confident and feel better.

"Home Prices Fall in Major US Cities" (Associated Press, here)
This comes via the monthly Case Schiller index. It's the last November report comparing home sales to last October. We covered that ground back then, and we are still seeing a slight median sold price decline in South Lake Tahoe.

Also as it relates to South Lake Tahoe, CA, what's good about this report also has to do with public perception, though this does take focus to see through the clutter. First home prices in the top US cities do not affect those of South Lake Tahoe.

Secondly, the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price for all of 2010 was $299,000 (not including Tahoe Keys). It is the same today, $285,000, as it was a week ago. On September 4th last year, it was $291,000. What this means is we are still seeing a slight decline of the South Lake Tahoe median sold price, though only 2% ($6,000) in the last 6 months. That $6,000 decline is coincidentally the same as the final median sold decline we saw in all of last year.

With public perception about the economy, and the country in general on the upswing, the decline in the value of existing home sales last November as found in the Case Schiller index may help to stave off rising mortgage interest rates. It could also help combat resolve with home sellers, whose position as to home values will eventually increase as things get better.

In other words, even though urban home value has nothing to do with South Lake Tahoe, a report such as this drives perception… and helps keep a buyers advantage before things eventually change again.

"Americans More Optimistic of State of Nation" (CNN Political Ticker, here)
With the State of the Union speech hours away, a new national poll indicates a surge in optimism about the state of the nation. While 56% of Americans still think things are going badly, those with that sentiment have dropped from 71% since the end of the year. In other words a better feeling about things is growing rather rapidly.

This affects South Lake Tahoe, CA in terms of an increasingly better public perception, which always affects a housing market more positively than negatively.

"Hiring Plans Top Layoffs by Most in 12 Years" (Associated Press, here)
This report states that many economists believe the U.S. economic recovery is gaining strength, and that more firms are expressing more positive hiring plans than in over a decade.

What this means to South Lake Tahoe, CA is a better public perception of the economy. This is good for home buyers, who would much rather buy through optimism than not, although "better news" will eventually lead to both higher home prices and higher interest rates.

If we were buying now, we'd think advantage should be taken of the current market condition, and especially of near historic lows in the mortgage interest rates.

"Home Sales hit 13-year Low" (Associated Press, here)
Article states that US existing home sales fell by 4.8%, a near decade and a half low. South Lake Tahoe, CA, on the other hand, had a 2010 increase in existing home sales by 16.3% (71 more home sales than that of 2009).

What this means more than anything is two things: (1) things are different in a resort market, and (2.) all real estate markets are local.

"2010 Ends as 2nd Worse Year for Home Instruction" (Associated Press, here)
This makes sense considering the overall 2010 US economy, but as it relates to South Lake Tahoe, CA, there is always little new home construction. This has much to do with our environmental growth restrictions, which helps make South Lake Tahoe such an everlasting resort environment destination wonder.

Construction regulation also naturally limits supply, which has a general historic effect of keeping home prices up, or down less, compared to the rest of the nation too.

"Home Building Permits Soar 17%" (CNNMoney.com, here)
On the heels of the report above about the scarcity  of new home construction in 2010 comes this: December new home construction permits nationally increased by 17%. The affect of this on South Lake Tahoe new home construction is minimal, but news such as this does contribute to perception that things are getting better.

Some 2010 year-end Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts you may find of interest:

Jan 21, 2011: South Lake Tahoe median sold prices since 2005.
Jan 21, 2011: South Lake Tahoe, CA distressed home sales by neighborhood since 2009.
Jan 22, 2011: South Lake Tahoe housing demand by neighborhood since 2008

More articles about South Lake Tahoe, CA home values:

Oct 9, 2011: Analysis of South Lake Tahoe, CA home sales
Oct 2, 2010: Better News for Buyers…
Aug 31, 2010: US Home Prices Up… what about South Lake Tahoe?
Aug27, 2010: I Woke Up this Morning… to the South Lake Tahoe Blues.
Jul 1, 2010: South Lake Tahoe Foreclosures: No Change Yet.
May 15, 2010: Where is the New Foreclosures Deluge?
Nov 15, 2009: Foreclosure Filings Down in October, what does it mean?
Nov 24, 2008: Sometimes South Lake Tahoe and National Real Estate Trends just don't Jive

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

August Existing Home Sales… and South Lake Tahoe

September 24th, 2010 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA

Questions about real estate reportingThere is more South Lake Tahoe, CA median price decline in August than the national average.

This one comes from CNNMoney.com, and it's the August US existing home sales report via the National Association of Realtors NAR). Lets look at that first, then we'll compare August US housing trends to that of South Lake Tahoe, CA.

You may find it of interest, like we did, that the CNN writer, after stating that existing home sales "bounced back", he felt compelled to add "after plunging nearly 30% the previous month."

First of all, US July existing home sales declined 27% compared to last July. That's not 30%, though we realize that's a better headline. But we're not interested in sensational headlines; we're not selling news, or ratings, or news driven advertising. What we do is provide the best information possible about South Lake Tahoe real estate… whatever that might be.

CnnMoney.com

We've written much about that July existing housing report, and we'll provide links to some of it at the end of this post. In our comparative research on July home sales, that big, sensational news-driven report of a 27% national decline was actually 7 home sales less here. In July only.

Especially in these testy economic times, unless the national news media takes the time to put real estate reporting into meaningful context, we don't find it responsible to the public they serve. When one considers how a media giant reports politics, though, and each one has a pro-or con agenda about one party or the other, which is a tangent we won't get on, then it makes sense that real estate reporting too could very well use some good cleaning up.

We might add "meaningful context" to us would include statements such as "real estate market trends and conditions vary from market to market." Something that simple could well help public perception, because for example we all know that real estate trends will be different in cities with job opportunity vs cities where there is little employment prospect, and it also makes sense that national trends will vary from primary home markets to vacation resort markets like South Lake Tahoe… that have a rather fixed supply due to responsible environmental growth controls.

In other words, and this term is part of our industry lexicon, "all real estate is local." In the case here, some of our resort stats are better than the national trend, and some are notably worse. But the point is it's different!

In any event, here's some bullet points of the US August existing home sales report (full article here):

Existing home sales bounced back in August after plunging nearly 30% in the previous month.

  • Sales of previously-owned homes in August rose 7.6%.
  • That's up from July, but down 19% from a year ago.
  • National housing inventory is now 11.6 months.
  • US median sold price declined 1.9% from July, and up .8% from a year ago.
  • About a third of US August home sales were in foreclosure.

The CNNMoney.com report includes comments made by Mark Tepper, a managing partner of Strategic Wealth Partners. He includes, "we're still down 21.5% from June and sales dropped significantly in July, so the hurdle was just so low that you almost had to beat it."

Tepper further adds: "If you're a homeseller, sell now if you can. If you're looking to buy, wait a while. That's because prices are likely to sink another 10% to 25% in the next 18 to 24 months as the economic recovery remains sluggish." He adds,  "this whole housing mess is a disaster that's going to last a while."

We find the choice to find Tepper and have him comment on this NAR report from this point of view interesting. It was eight days ago that  Brett Arends wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled "Ten Reasons to buy a Home" (article here, and our take on that here).

Three days ago, in an article entitled "Double-dip Recession Risk: Unlikely, but Rising", CNN filed a report based on a survey of 31 top national economists, and you know what, and it's hardly a surprise, those 31 different economists had a different opinion as to the state of the US economy, which certainly includes the housing market. (article here, and out take on that here).

So here's our question, if esteemed economists, and the media can not seem to agree about the state of things, why not include differing points of view in real estate reports? In this case our opinion is that Mark Tepper's position should have been balanced with that of Brett Arends, or anyone else responsible with a similar position.

 About South Lake Tahoe, CA :

August Home Sales:
August 2009 sales: 44
August 2010 sales: 50
difference: 6 home sales more ( 13.6% ), or 6.2% more than the national increase in August home sales from this year to last.)

August Housing Inventory: (based on 180-day absorption rates)
August 2009 supply: 13.1 months
August 2010 supply: 9.0 months (this is better)
difference: 4.1 months less (+31.2%), or 2.6 months less supply than the August national report)

Median Sold Price: (Tahoe Keys not included)
July 2010 sales: $324,500
August 2009 sales: $307,500
August 2010 sales: $274,000
difference: $17,000 less in median sold price from July to August this year, and $33,000 less from August last year to August this year (notably more than the national average)

Foreclosure:
Percent of distressed sales in August 2009: 31.1%
Percent of distressed sales in August 2010: 46%
difference: 14.9% increase, or about 13% more than the national trend of a third of August home sales were distressed.

The chart below indicates all South Lake Tahoe, CA home sales by month since 2003.

South Lake Tahoe home sales by month since 2003

Other posts to consider:

September 22, 2010: Babe Ruth and Housing Stats
August 27, 2010: I Woke Up this Morning to the South Lake Tahoe Blues
July 1, 2010: South Lake Tahoe Foreclosures: No Change Yet.
May 15, 2010: Where is the New Foreclosures Deluge?
November 15, 2009: Foreclosure Filings Down in October, what does it mean?
November 24, 2008: Sometimes South Lake Tahoe and National Real Estate Trends just don't Jive

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

Chicken Little, Chicken Big, No Chicken… and other Economic Predictions

September 21st, 2010 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news

Chicken LIttle and the predicting business: it's not easy being the lead chickenThat "Double Dip" phrase again, it's not likely to happen… maybe!

Well, all we can say is they are at it again. And from all of their pontificating, a survey of 31 U.S. economists tells us this: we're not likely to slip back into recession… unless we do.

Reports like this one from CNNMoney.com today remind us of that esteemed Bronx oracle, Yogi Berra: when you come to a fork in the road, take it. That aside, one thing we do know is things are rarely clear in the predicting business. Especially the economic predicting business.

Whether Yogi was behind the scene notwithstanding, the CNN report comes from a survey of top U.S. economists. One more than thirty of them, and here's some key bullet points of their accumulated wisdom:

CNNMoney.com

  • Will the United States slip back into recession? Not likely.
  • The risk of a double-dip recession is rising, but there is only about a one-in-four chance of that happening.
  • Economists agree that high unemployment, weak growth, little improvement in home values — isn't going away anytime soon.
  • More than half of those surveyed agree the chance of a double-dip recession has risen since the start of the year.
  • Three economists believe there is less risk than there was in the spring.
  • Nine economists surveyed left their forecasts unchanged.
  • One economist says we've been talking about a double-dip for at least nine months. He says the risk of that is 25%, the same thing he said six months ago.
  • Three economists put the risk of a double-dip as high as 40%.
  • Two economists put the risk at only 5%.
  • A third of the economists sees no chance of a double-dip recession at all.
  • One economist says "don't bet against this economy."

What's interesting about this survey to us is the number of people involved. We all know that it's difficult for two people to agree on things, and thirty-one of them compounds agreement exponentially. So really, the news here is… there really is no news at all.

In conclusion, baseball and economic pundits aside, having now read and reported on this, it's now clear that when I do come to that fork in the road, I'm going to go left. For sure,…er, …or, maybe I better turn right. No, better yet, I'm going to look at that fork… and ask for a salad!

Other posts just as clear ;-)

August 27, 2010: I Woke Up this Morning to the South Lake Tahoe Blues
July 1, 2010: South Lake Tahoe Foreclosures: No Change Yet.
May 15, 2010: Where is the New Foreclosures Deluge?
November 15, 2009: Foreclosure Filings Down in October, what does it mean?
November 24, 2008: Sometimes South Lake Tahoe and National Real Estate Trends just don't Jive

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Written by Richard Bolen | Discussion: Please leave a comment.

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