The Speed of Trust,
Getting to Yes,
All Real Estate is Local,
Negotiation,
Clear Blogging,
A National Disconnect Continues… and its here too in South Lake Tahoe to some extent, but the forces are opposite.
We find this Wall Street Journal article interesting, yet it comes with no surprise. The main thrust of it is what we all know: rising unemployment continues to weigh on the housing market, even thought there are signs of both economic recovery and rising home prices in some parts of the country.
Lets look at the main points in the article, then we’ll look at current South Lake Tahoe market reality from that perspective.
- Real-estate prices increased for the fourth consecutive month. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price composite 20-city index rose 1.2% in August from July.
- Price increases come from lower mortgage rates and a push from the $8,000 federal first-time home-buyer tax credit that expires next month.
- The Case Schiller 20-city index, however, is down 11.3% from a year ago.
- The Conference Board on Tuesday reported that consumer confidence fell to 47.7 in October, the second fall in two months.
- The housing report showed a real-estate market that is slowly improving but is still a long way from healthy.
(full article here, comparison to South Lake Tahoe below)
What about South Lake Tahoe?
Where nationally we are seeing a slight increase in home values coupled with a decline in consumer confidence as reported by Case Schiller,we’re seeing somewhat opposite forces here in South Lake Tahoe, CA.
South Lake Tahoe, CA home prices continue to decline (driven primarily by 40% of all sales are distressed properties), yet we are seeing increases in housing demand.
Prices:
The median sold price in South Lake Tahoe is currently $305,000 (based on last 180 days of sales not including The Tahoe Keys.)
That same number was $325,000 on May 28, $318,000 on July 18 and $315,000 on August 24th.
(see chart below)
Confidence:
Perhaps the best way we have to gauge consumer confidence here in South Lake Tahoe, CA is to track housing demand over time. We do this by looking at absorption rates, or the average number of homes sold by month.
There has been an increase in housing demand recently. At present the monthly absoption rate is 39.5 home sales per month (based on all sales in the last 180 days). This is an average of 15 more sales per month than it was five months ago.
On October 8, that same number was 36.5.
On September 5, it was 34.0.
On August 9, it was 31.3.
On July 18, it was 29.7
On June 15, it was 25.5
(South Lake Tahoe housing demand here)
The chart below indicates the South Lake Tahoe median sold price in 365, 180, 90 and 30-day increments since April, 2007.
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