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Better News for Buyers… More Decline in the South Lake Tahoe Median Price

October 2nd, 2010 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Major Market Reports, Median Sold Price Report, Sales Reports, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA

On target with the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price!

This one kinda surprised us. We noticed a change in the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price last weekend, and we really wanted to get a more detailed look than usual before we reported on it.

Because perception is so important, we wanted to be more than sure that this change is better news for buyers, and that sellers do not get a mixed signal as to what this change is, if anything. It was because this last week came with such a full schedule that it took us this long to do our research, crunch the numbers and get this report done.

Our usual median sold price chart is below. It contains the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold prices since April, 2007. This chart does not include homes in the Tahoe Keys, which is a singularly unique South Lake Tahoe, CA neighborhood. Including home sales there usually skews the median sold price upward by 4% to 6%, though it is 8% this year. Since no other neighborhood has canals and boat docks in backyards with immediate lake access, we think the Keys requires special disclosure and consideration.

We also normally look at the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price over market performance in the last 180 days. This is because it takes on average about 5 months to sell a South Lake Tahoe, CA house in the current market climate. Our charts also provide median sold looks over 365 days, and over the last 3 months, and the last 30 days as well. But it is the 180-day market performance, without the Tahoe Keys, that we consider the actual median sold price (we've been tracking this number with exactly the same apples-to-apples statistical comparisons and assumptions since 2002).

So What is it?
The South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price changed from $309,000 in the first week of August to $291,000 a month later. It is now $289,500 (here).

We have not seen such a meaningful change in the median sold price since our May 28 report in 2009 (here). So we went into detailed work to best understand it, and that work produced the new chart that also follows below.

Because this new chart is so detailed, we've had to compress it to fit in this column width, but we've also included this link for you to download it if you'd like to see it in full size.

The Details
Here's what our study tells us:

The median sold price for all August South Lake Tahoe, CA home sales was $274,750.

This is the lowest median sold price of home sales in any month this year… more than $20,000 less.

Homes that sold in August were listed on average at $400,000.

This is some $80,000 lower than the average listing price of homes sold in all other months in this 180-day reporting period (March – July).

52% of August homes sold were under $299,999.

This is some 10% more than the average percentage of homes sold in the market entry price ranges than all other months in this 180-day reporting period.

The percentage of August distressed home sales was 46%.

This is about the same as the ratio of distressed sales in the other months in this 180-day reporting period (47%).

The median sold price for all 2010 home sales excluding the Tahoe Keys is $300,000.

As of a few days ago, the median sold price of all September home sales is $289,000, or about the same as the change we noticed at the beginning of the month.

Summary and Conclusion

Homes sold in August were listed significantly lower on average than in all other months in this 108-day reporting period.

August also produced about 10% more sales under $299,999 than all other months in the five months prior.

Distressed sales had no bearing on this change in the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price over the last 180 days.

Our conclusion is August home sales were instrumental in lowering the median sold price over the last 180 days. The median sold price of September home sales are consistent with this change. There is no evidence of an increase in distressed home sales that contributes to this change.

It appears there is even a more advantageous opportunity for a buyer here in South Lake Tahoe.

South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price since April, 2007.