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US Home Prices Up… so What about South Lake Tahoe?

August 31st, 2010 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Foreclosures, Major Market Reports, Sales Reports, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA

South Lake Tahoe, CA home prices

South Lake Tahoe, CA home prices stable for last 11 months… but have declined by 36% since market high.

Today's somewhat better national housing news comes via various media outlets, and it is based on the current Standard & Poor's / Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released this morning. Here we'll focus on what the Associated Press and CNNMoney.com has to say, then we'll compare to South Lake Tahoe.

First here's a synthesis of the bullet points in today's real estate news:

Home prices gain 3.6% in the past year.

Home prices gained 1% in June (compared to May)

Home prices were up 4.4% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter in 2010.

Nationally, prices have risen 6% from their April 2009 bottom. But they remain 28 percent below their July 2006 peak.

It is speculated that these increases are largely due to the recently expired home buyer tax credit. The CNNMoney.com article comes with doom and gloom predictions from several economists. Lets see some bullet points from them:

Since the home buyer tax credit expired, housing has been an "Acapulco-sized cliff dive."

Prices will slowly deteriorate in the upcoming months.

Home prices could be much lower a year from now.

An inventory glut, a new foreclosure deluge, and unemployment will cause prices to come down.

Before we compare this report to South Lake Tahoe, we feel it's important to note that all of us have seen similar negative predictions from various economists and media outlets for at least the last 20 months or so. These such reports cite essentially the same reasons for further housing value declines. We recently reported on this here, here and here.

(full Associated Press article, full CNNMoney.com article)

What About South Lake Tahoe?
Lets look at the numbers for both sides of our tateline, and then we'll compare in a following summary.

South Lake Tahoe, CA: (Tahoe Keys not included)

The median sold price of single family homes in January, 2010 was: $300,000 (based on sales of prior 180-days)

The median sold price today for all 2010 sales is: $308,000

The median sold price in the last 180 days is: $300,000

The difference: $8,000 more, or 2.6% up.

South Lake Tahoe median sold price of all May sales: $295,000

The median sold price of all June sales: $297,500

The difference: $2,500 more, or .8% up.

South Lake Tahoe median sold price for the first quarter 2010: $315,000

The median sold price for the second quarter of 2010: $300,000

The difference: $15,000 less, or 4.7

The South Lake Tahoe median sold price in June, 2006: $475,000

The South Lake Tahoe median sold price in April, 2009: $361,000 (it declined to $325,000 by the end of May)

The median sold price today: $300,000 (last 180-days)

The difference from June '06 to now is $175,000, or a 36.8% decline. The difference from April 2009 is $61,000, or 16.8%.

Stateline, NV: (based on sales over past 180 days, Lakefront properties and Glenbrook not included)

The median sold price of single family homes on January 1, 2010 was: $572,000

The median sold price today for all of 2010 is: $527,450

The median sold price in the last 180 days: $575,000

The difference from January to today is $3,000 more, or .5%. This is based on all sales over the last 180-days. For all 2010 sales, however, the difference is $44,550 less, or 7.7% less. Two reasons for this discrepancy are (1) there are such few NV sales, and the last two months have produced sales at a higher price point than the first two months of the year.

Stateline, NV median sold price of all May sales: $519,000

The median sold price of all June sales: $725,000

The difference: $206,000 more, or 39.6% up. Again, reasons for such a wide range of change is there are so few NV sales, and we're seeing higher sales points now than at beginning of the year.

Stateline, NV median sold price for the first quarter 2010: $485,000

The median sold price for the second quarter of 2010: $575,000

The difference: $90,000 more, though again reason for such a a wide range of change is there are so few NV sales, and sales points were lower at beginning of the year.

Stateline, NV median sold price on June 30, 2006: $900,000 (last 180-days)

Stateline, NV median sold price in April, 2009: $475,000 (last 180-days)

The median sold price today: $575,000 (last 180-days)

The difference: from June 2006 to today, $325,000 less, or 36.1% decline. From April 2009 to today: $100,000 more, or 21% increase.

Summary:
One of the real estate terms that one frequently hears is "all real estate is local." What that means is market forces in one area are not necessarily the same in another. As it relates to South Lake Tahoe, often national real estate trends and conditions are different than those here. When trends and conditions are similar, often there is a difference in degree.

Lets summarize the report here:

Home prices have gained 3.6% nationally thus far in 2010. In South Lake Tahoe, CA that gain is 2.6%. In Stateline, NV that gain is only .5%.

Nationally home prices gained 1% in June compared to May. In South Lake Tahoe, CA that gain was .8%, or about the same as the national average. In Stateline, NV that gain was 39.6%, but that is based on only on a few home sales (less than 10) .

National home prices were up 4.4% in the second quarter of 2010 compared to the first. In South Lake Tahoe, CA there was a 4.7% loss. In Stateline, NV that gain was 18.5%, but again this is based on only a few home sales (only 55 homes sold in all of 2010, only 19 in Q1 and 20 in Q 2.)

Nationally, prices are down 28% from their 2006 high. In South Lake Tahoe, CA that decline is 36.8%. In Stateline, NV that decline is 36.1%