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Well, I woke up this morning… to the South Lake Tahoe Blues.

August 27th, 2010 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, National real estate news, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA, Stateline, NV

Is South Lake Tahoe at the polar opposite of where we were back in August, 2005?

It's true, a whole lot of blues songs start out with the lyric "I woke up this morning." Usually the songwriter, that quintessential bluesman, is waking up to bad news– that my woman done left me kind of bad news.

Our bad news yesterday morning was not that dire, we didn't lose anything, but two of the home buyers we are developing, one about to make an eminent offer, emailed us that they are not going to buy now. Their reason: the recent national news about the drop in July existing home sales.

We knew this was coming, and it's quite likely this was heard more than once here in South Lake Tahoe in the last few days. More than anything, it's about perception.

On the release of the news, we immediately wrote a comparison to the news item (here), so that our readers could put that national report into some meaningful context in South Lake Tahoe. We also followed that up with a piece yesterday (here) that was even more to the point: the only decline seen here was 7 sales less than July of last year.

Us and Buyers :
Before we talk about perception, lets review that we are never in a rush with the buyer's we represent. As much as possible we try to mirror a buyer's pace. If they appear to be in a hurry, we move quickly. If they are looking for the future, we move at their speed. In other words, If a buyer wants to wait, that's just fine with us. We are gratefully working with lots of these.

Sometimes though, we have to remind a buyer that they very well will miss a house they love if they do not move on it right away. That is the nature of our business. From time to time houses appear on the market, at the right price and circumstance, and those that do don't last long. Sometimes, literally, we're talking hours, if not minutes for the market to gobble a home… even in today's real estate climate.

It's always a good idea for a buyer to remember this: that house you really like, that's right for you, is probably the exact same thing that others are looking for too.

The Home Buying Decision :
As significant a purchase as a house may be, buying one is still an emotional decision. It comes with facts, due-diligence and attendant investment considerations, of course, but buying a house still is a decision that comes from the heart. We understand that.

Buyers are also fearful, by that we mean two essential questions must be answered within every buyer's mind: am I paying too much, and did I miss anything. Every buyer objection comes from one or both of these questions.

We've used this example before, and it's a good one. A buyer once told us they would not buy a $2.5M house because they didn't like the color of the master bedroom carpet. What they said is they don't like mauve, but what they meant is the house costs too much.

About Perception :
People like to believe what suits them. Sometimes what suits us is right, or true, sometimes not. It's been like that, we think, since man started thinking. It is the nature of things.

When it comes to real estate, either nationally or locally, the public perception may not be real, but it is reality.

The media usually fuels public perception, though in the current national real estate climate, various media sources have differing opinions as to where we are. There are some who say things are better, or worse, than others. The point is, who are you going to believe?

For the last year and a half, at least, there has been much media hue and cry about the shadow inventory: the foreclosure deluge that is sure to come, say some. We've heard and read about it so much that shadow inventory is part of the American lexicon. It's a buzz word now, and one to be aware and careful of, but the truth is there is no more evidence of it in South Lake Tahoe now than eighteen-months ago. No new deluge here.

The new term now, sprinting blisteringly past shadow inventory, is double-dip recession. And the national existing housing report a few days ago has certainly given rise to double-dip-talk frenzy (double dip is for ice cream cones, but that's another story).

Is that shadow inventory actually coming? Will there be a significant return to further recession? Are we already there yet? We don't know, but we aren't seeing it yet statistically here in South Lake Tahoe. Truth is we only saw 7 fewer July sales this year than last, and more than 100 South Lake Tahoe homes have sold this year to date than last year.

Ours is to report what is, and might-be is not the business we are in, and besides that, nobody knows either. That's why people can find just about anything they want to support what they choose to believe.

A Closing Thought and Question : (this is where that polar opposite stuff comes in)
Back in August, 2005, right before Katrina hit, your remember, that was when real estate home values were higher than the ever were, or have been since. If you asked someone about the market back then, and we did, a lot, nobody ever said this: the market is higher right now than it will be for the next 5 years.

Nobody said that because nobody knew.

Since then, though, how many thousands, OK millions of people who have sold, or lost their home since have said this: I wish the hell that I would've sold my house back in August of 2005!

So lets consider these points, and ask a final question.