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The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA House, Then and Now.

January 26th, 2009 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, Market Performance Updates, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA

Maybe not with marbles, but with houses, one can get more for your money today than before.The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA House of  today was a $550,000 house 5-years ago.

There are two South Lake  Tahoe brothers, both in elementary school, one an egghead type, the other a marble champion. The Champ goes into the Land of Marbles toy store.

In marble land he stares at his favorite shooters, not just any shooters, but red jasper mineral shooters, the fancy, costly, devastating shooter that’s harder than glass. Anxious, coveting, the Champ has wanted a set of these orbital gems since he can remember.

Today though, something is new. Only available in sets of four, the price of red mineral jaspers has changed. Instead of $8.99 each, they are now $7.65 each, and the set of 4 now includes one extra red mineral jasper treasure for free. Wow, the champ muses, “the price is cheaper… and I can get more at the same time.”


The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house is 29% larger than it was in 2005.That night he tells his brother about the red jasper sale. “Lemme see them,” the egghead urges. “Didn’t buy them,” says the Champ. “Have you lost all of your marbles?”, his brother asks. The Champ answers, “Just waiting for the price of red jaspers to go lower.”

The Champ explains that The National Marble News says both marble demand and marble prices are dropping nationwide, that some say overall marbles may drop another 20%. His brother retorts, “Yeah, but that’s for all marbles, not red mineral jaspers!”

The egghead answers that red jaspers at $7.65 each is a price reduction of 15%, and that the other free marble added to the package actually constitutes a total reduction of 32%. “You’ve got to take getting more for the same price into consideration too.” he adds, “there’s a big difference between rare, coveted shooters and all of the rest of the marbles everywhere else.”

The Champ concludes, “I’m going back to buy them tomorrow.”

The next day the Champ goes back to the Land of Marbles. And there, disappointed, he finds that all of the red jasper mineral marbles he has always wanted are gone.

What Does This Have to do with the Value of a South Lake Tahoe house? 
We of course realize there is a difference between marbles and houses, but the point of this children’s tale very much symbolizes the South Lake Tahoe real estate market today.  (see chart below)

The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe of today sold for $550,000 5 years ago.There are gems to be had in the market now, and both their price is lower on average, and one can get more house at the same price than before. In fact, the $400,000 house in South Lake Tahoe today sold for almost $550,000 in 2005/2006. (Compare chart below with that of the following post about the $500,000 South Lake Tahoe house.)

We realize we’re looking at averages here, and a particular house should be analyzed in exact detail to best understand its opportunity, but one thing for sure is it is a better market condition for Buyers in South Lake Tahoe than one has seen in 5 years.

This comes from a new, extensive study we’re doing that was somewhat sparked by a few recent comments from potential buyers that are at odds between what the market is, and what they expect it to be.

Please review the entire background for this study at the top of this article about the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house here.

The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe House Then and Now: 
Please look at the chart below, which details the average characteristics of a home purchased from $400,000 to $499,000 since 2003.

Also note the last column in the chart, with its numbers  in red.  These are the same characteristics for houses currently listed. It is from this chart that comes the following:

  • On average, the $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house available right now was originally listed 12% higher than it was in 2004. (In other words the $400,000 house was orignally listed as a $500,000 house.)
  • On average it took 88% longer to sell a $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house in 2008 than it did in 2005.
  • On average the square foot value of a $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 21.4% lower than it was in 2005.
  • The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 29% larger than it was in 2005.
  • On average the age of the $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house is about the same today as it has been since 2004.

What it Means: The Bottom Line
It's a better market for buyers in South Lake Tahoe than in the last 5-years.Our assumptions are correct, one does get more “marbles” today that before. The $400,000 house in South Lake Tahoe, CA today is more than 25% larger, and priced more than 20% lower in square foot value than homes sold in 2005/2006.

Coupled with the current 15% decline in the South Lake Tahoe median sold price, this represents at least another 20% decline in value as found in the average home listed in the $400,000 price range today.

We use the term “at least” above because the homes currently listed in South Lake Tahoe in any price range, including this one, will be sold at a further reduction in both current listed price and, correspondingly, price per square foot.

It appears that much, if not most, of the additional declines in home values as predicted in recent national real estate news reports are already factored into the home values of current South Lake Tahoe listings. (Rather than being found exclusively in the median sold price, it’s hiding in plain sight!)

Sales statistics for the $400,000 South Lake Tahoe house since 2003.

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This entry was posted on Monday, January 26th, 2009 at 2:44 pm and is filed under For Buyers, For Sellers, Lake Tahoe Real Estate, Market Performance Updates, South Lake Tahoe Statistics, South Lake Tahoe, CA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  1. The $500,000 South Lake Tahoe house then and now. said at January 27th, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    [...] The $400,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA House, Then and Now. [...]

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