Archive for February, 2007

What Today’s News about a Record Home Price Slump means to the Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market.

It’s only a few hours old and it’s all over the internet. Published at 6:46 pm EST, the “Record Home Price Slump” article is already atop the email hot list on CNN.com. We’ve already emailed copies of it to all our key clients, and we suspect that every real estate professional across the country has too. This is important information for Buyers and Sellers alike, though we suspect for perhaps different reasons. It’s more important, we think, that the information is seen as an opportunity. The headline is certainly attention-grabbing sensationalistic, and it comes with a negative connotation, which is consistent with the media’s stance on the national housing market since the fall of 2005. But this is not bad news for Lake Tahoe. Let’s examine today’s cloud for it’s silver lining.

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Mortgage Interest Rates since 1997 – 2007 is a Great time to Buy in Lake Tahoe!

A number of factors characterize the housing market. Interest rates are one of the key real estate market determinants. For this exercise, let’s take a look at interest rates for the last ten years. We’ll also look at median price growth and the total number of sales in our Lake Tahoe real estate market since 2000. We’ll see what affect interest rates may have had on us, the normal assumption being when interest rates are low, the market goes up; when high, the market goes down. What we will likely find is things are not always what they seem, or what we assume, and that any perception at present that interest rates are too high is more of a mis-perception than accurate. Before we look at each year, lets specify that we’ll be looking at national interest rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Though interest rates vary daily, we’ll be looking at one number which is the average interest rate for each year (chart). Value growth is expressed by median price for homes that sold. We’ll also be looking at total number of homes sold each year.

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Our real estate market has become a bona fide attraction for Buyers.

Choice abounds, prices have come down somewhat to what appears to be a stable plateau, interest rates are still excellent and many of our area owners are actually motivated to sell. Though confounding examples remain of steadfast value ambition, there are key indicators that our Buyer’s market is strong, viable, and open for business. One of the key factors of our real estate market in attracting serious Buyers is a lot more people didn’t sell their house last year than those who did. Here are the particulars. There were 438 homes sold in South Lake Tahoe, CA in 2006. This is compared to 660 homes for sale whose listings expired, of which 28 were withdrawn or terminated. This means that 150% more people were overcome by the market last year than those that beat it. It is also a 765% increase in expireds from the year prior, 2005. Now, at the onset of 2007 as of today, there 392 active listings in South Lake Tahoe, CA. Another way of looking at this is 89% of last year’s total market sales performance is still on the market. Availability, or the number of homes from which to choose, will increase substantially until it reaches our normal July inventory peak.

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A Frozen Pipe and the Golden Rule of Real Estate Service.

Sometimes Service is not a matter of choice.

We had certain ideas about the winter weather before we moved to Lake Tahoe. The Lake is at 6,300 feet above sea level, yet for some reason it’s far more temperate in the winter than we first thought. Usually, we wear sweaters and rather light jackets, and rarely do I ever wear a heavy coat. It does from time to time, however, get cold, though it rarely lasts for more than a few days. Twice this year, it has been one of those times. The first “spell” was before Christmas. A front came in out of Canada and it got down to about zero overnight for a weekend. The daytime highs were in the 20′s.

About three years ago, a gentleman who lives in the Bay area called us to help him evaluate his vacation townhome in the ski community on the slope of Heavenly Mountain. He wasn’t necessarily interested in selling, but like many owners up here, there is an interest in keeping up to date with value and our real estate market performance. We get a lot of such calls.

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The Most Important thing we’ve learned in Real Estate!

Being helpful is the Muse.

Starting a blog should provoke the thought, “what do I have to say?” We’ve certainly considered that, sometimes laughably, sometimes obsessively, and then, of course, as with anything my brother and I have written or created before, out of the beginning excitement and flurry of an idea comes a time of calm and patience. It is almost always out of that settlement that comes the real thought, the one idea that gives a project it’s meaning, it’s muse. It’s not what we have to say that’s relevant; it’s do we have anything to share that you might find important or helpful? That’s the better thought that came to us in considering this blog, it’s you that matters.

We came out of Los Angeles via Austin, both years ago. Our background was music, and movies, and marketing, and writing, both in song and in prose. We had something in mind of course when we moved from LA to Lake Tahoe, and whatever that was, it was not getting into the real estate business. That came out of 911 and the stock market crash thereunto. Ours was mostly in tech holdings, but that’s another story. I was lucky enough to found a public company in LA in the late ’80′s, though I went there to write screenplays, which is another story too. I became it’s Sr. VP Marketing for a decade, and after we moved to paradise on the Lake to “retire” (relax is a better word), I found that I really enjoyed the process of buying our home. When the stock market pummeled, we thought we’d see if we could sell a few houses.

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2006 Expireds increase in South Lake Tahoe by 868%.

2006 lake tahoe expiredsThis is what sparked us to create our Real Estate Market Seminars.

One of the clearest indicators of our “Buyer’s Market” here in South Lake Tahoe is the startling increase in the number of homes that did not sell in 2006. This occurred on both sides of our state line, but more so in California than Nevada. There are a few reasons for this, but first the actual numbers.

There were 73 homes that expired in our South Shore California market in 2005, compared to 632 in 2006 – a startling increase of 868%. On the Nevada side of our market there were 36 expired homes in 2005 compared to 63 expireds in 2006, an increase of 175%.

There are approximately 2,500 single family homes on the Nevada side of our south shore market. There’s no “town” across the state line on the Lake per se, so we just call it Stateline, Nevada. South Lake Tahoe, California has about 13,500 single family homes. So there’s always more homes on the market here, and more opportunities for expireds.

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Real Esate Tomato Chiclet