Another Way of Looking at South Lake Tahoe Escrow… to determine possible change in buying habits.

We were in various discussions late yesterday about current South Lake Tahoe market conditions, which is certainly more common than not. What we were responding to is some of our colleagues are saying they have seen more buyers in the last few weeks purchasing homes that are not distressed, rather than buying bank owned homes or short sales.

It was their opinion that buyers are tired of the often labyrinthian, confounding  difficulty of getting acceptance and closing a distressed property sale.

A manager from a different brokerage said he believes buyers are presently buying more homes that are not distressed… at reasonable prices (that is true, some homes are priced with exceptional reason).

While we certainly know that purchasing a distressed property is more difficult, and that buyers are put off by the tedious process, we have not seen any meaningful change in buyer preferences, not only in the last few weeks, but in the last 6 months.

Nevertheless, lets take a look at recent escrow and median sales to see if there is any evidence that buyers are doing anything new or different.

The charts below track South Lake Tahoe activity since September 1st of last year.

 Homes in Escrow :

The number of homes in escrow has ranged from a high of 109 to a low of 81.

• This is a difference of 28, or 25.7%.
• The average number of homes in escrow in the last six months has been 98.75.

The number of distressed properties in escrow has ranged from a high of 75 to a low of 56.

• This is a difference of 19, or 25.3%.
• The average number of distressed properties in escrow has been 64.

The percentage of distress properties in escrow has ranged from a high of 74.1% to a low of 55.1%.

• This is a difference of 19%.
• The average has been 65.1%.

The number of homes in escrow that are not distressed properties has ranged from a high of 48 to a low of 21.

• This is a difference of 27, or 56.3%.
• The average number of homes in escrow that are not distressed has been 34.75.

The median price of homes in escrow has ranged from a high of $344,000 to a low of $319,000.

• This is a difference of $25,000, or 7.3%.
• The average has been $329,156.

 Inventory : (active listings only)

The number of active listings has ranged from a high of 447 to a low of 295.

• This is a difference of 152, or 34%.
• The average number of listings on the market has been 342.1.

A decline in South Lake Tahoe housing inventory normally occurs after Labor Day each year. Inventory normally starts increasing in the first quarter of each year, and reaches its peak in late summer.

 Median Sold Price : (180-days, Tahoe Keys not included)

The median sold price in South Lake Tahoe since last October has ranged from a high of $305,000 to a low of $300,000.

• This is a difference of only $5,000, or 1.6%.

 The Bottom Line :

What this study supports what we already knew: other than inventory being lower than normal for this time of year, there has been no change in buyer preferences recently.

The chart below indicates South Lake Tahoe, CA escrow, inventory and distressed sales in escrow since September 1, 2009.

The chart below indicates South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold prices since October, 2009. Note that the 180-day number, not including the Tahoe Keys is used for this study (we use a 180-day look at the market because it is consistent with the average number of days it takes to sell a South Lake Tahoe house, which is presently 154 days on average.)

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The South Lake Tahoe Demand Trend is Better, so is Inventory, but with a qualifier!

Although the article before this one includes a comment in the Washington Post via the National Association of Realtors (NAR) about the national housing inventory, we thought we would take a separate look at it here.

The article says the inventory of US homes on the market is now at a 7.8-month supply, and that this is down more than 11 months since July 2008. The term "inventory" as it relates to housing means the number of months it will take to sell all active listings at current market demand.

We usually look at South Lake Tahoe, CA market demand by the monthly absorption rate (here). The monthly absorption rate is the average number of homes sold per month, and we normally look at such over home sales in the last  365-days and 180-days.

We look at the 180-day sales performance with a little more preference because it is more consistent with the average time it takes to sell a house, which is presently about 154 days.

Here's some things to note in the chart below:

• The current South Lake Tahoe, CA home inventory is 7.3 months.

• The national home inventory is 7.8 months, or .06% higher (as just reported by the NAR)

• The South Lake Tahoe home inventory in July 2008 was 18.1 months.

• This is 11 months lower than what it is now, and is consistent with that of the nation as reported by the NAR.

• The current number of active homes listed, however, (not counting homes in escrow) is 180 homes lower at present than it was in July 2008.

• This qualifies the current South Lake Tahoe, CA trend because less inventory naturally takes less time to sell.

• The average number of homes sold per month in South Lake Tahoe, CA has increased steadily since October of last year. (This is better!)

• Since last December, the average number of homes sold in South Lake Tahoe, CA per month has exceeded 40. (Better too!)

• Other than February first of this year, we have not seen the monthly absorption rate this high since we have been reporting on this blog.

The chart below indicates South Lake Tahoe, CA home inventory and monthly absorption rates since January, 2008. (note annual absorption rates below this chart as well)

Monthly Absorption Rates

• 36 single family homes sold per month in South Lake Tahoe in 2009.
• 29 sales per month in 2008.
• 31 sales per month in 2007.
• 37 sales per month in 2006.
• 57 sales per month in 2005.
• 68 sales per month in 2004.
• 50 sales per month in 2003.

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South Lake Tahoe, and other resort markets, are different when compared to the nation.

This Washington Post article came out Friday, and was basis for discussion on cable news outlets as part of their weekend programming.

Lets review some points in the article, then we'll look at South Lake Tahoe real estate market details.

• About 5 million to 7 million US properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure.

• It could take up to three years before all these homes have been sold.

• Homeowners who are in trouble now are people who have better credit, safer loans and have become delinquent because of job loss or other economic setbacks (healthcare costs being one of those).

• Some lenders are giving distressed borrowers more time to see whether they can modify the terms of their loans.

• Effect of this could be muted if eager buyers quickly purchase these properties, or efforts to enroll borrowers in mortgage relief programs improve.

• The impact of the coming foreclosure wave will vary by region.

The article also states via the National Association of Realtors (NAR) that over last calendar year, the number of foreclosed homes has declined across the country. Distressed properties made up just 38 percent of US home purchases in January, compared with a peak of 49 percent in March 2009.

The article states that these factors have reduced the inventory of US homes on the market to a 7.8-month supply, which is down more than 11 months since July 2008. As prices continue to stabilize, the article further states that lenders may tent to take advantage of the situation by putting more of distressed properties on the market.

(full article here)

 Lets Look at South Lake Tahoe, CA :

First lets review January foreclosure sales:

• Of the 34 total single family homes sold in South Lake Tahoe, CA this January, 11, 32%, were foreclosures (bank owned sales).

• This is 6% less than the national average of 38% as found in the Washington Post article via the NAR .

Now lets look at the incidence of foreclosure sales in March 2009:

• Of the 28 total single family homes sold in South Lake Tahoe, CA last March, 9, also 32%, were foreclosures (bank owned sales).

• This is 17% less than the national average of 49% as found in the Washington Post article via the NAR.

We will track South Lake Tahoe inventory in our next post and compare that to the 7.8 months of national supply as stated above.

 The Bottom Line :
We are expecting more foreclosures to hit our South Lake Tahoe real estate market, though to be certain nobody knows, and we're not certain either, if we're going to see a greater percentage of foreclosure activity than we have already seen.

Here's a few things that give us cause to question that national predictions of more foreclosures may not appear as significantly here:

• At present there is less incidence of foreclosure here in South Lake Tahoe than the national averages, both so far this year and last.

• We're seeing more short sales than foreclosues (here), primarily due to lending banks realizing that they make more money from a short sale than they do for a foreclosure.

• A new government program that will help some homeowners with short sales is due to start on April 5th (here).

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An Unexpected Report comes with Two of Temperament.

We thought this New York Times article interesting. The report states that US retail sales, rather than an expected decline, increased surprisingly.

What we like is reports like this indicates that the public is gaining confidence in the US economy. One economist, Alan Levenson at  T. Rowe Price, says "the consumer continues to come out of its shell after the shell-shock of the recession."  He cites the following:

• employment is falling slower
• wages are growing
• the number of  hours being worked is expanding
• incomes are up slightly

Whatever enthusiasm this brings is somewhat tempered by two other reports: one showed business inventories remained flat in January.  Another report recorded a dip in consumer sentiment in March due to continuing unease in the US unemployment rate.

Nevertheless, the surprise gain in retail sales is a sense that Americans are beginning to spend again. While economists do not expect consumer spending alone to pick up at a sufficient pace to lead the economy out of its downturn, it will probably continue to add modestly to growth.

(full article here)

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Well, maybe they aren't as much friends as they are archetypes.

"What are you doing here?", the Energizer Bunny said excitedly to Doubting Thomas from across the room. "I was hoping nobody would recognize me", Doubting Thomas said dolefully.

"You of all people, I can't believe you're at an open house," replied the eager Bunny. "I musta got here by mistake," Thomas said shaking his head with as little enthusiasm as possible.

"Now Thomas, you're not thinking of buying this house are you?", the Bunny said through a mischievous grin. "Absolutely not", Thomas said resolutely while wishing he had never met such an obnoxiously effusive creature.

"Prices are down, opportunity is up", the Bunny said energetically. "You oughta put that on a t-shirt and sell it", Thomas said eyes darting, looking for the closest door to make his escape.

"Interest rates are fantastic", the Bunny continued without missing a beat. "You missed your calling, you shoulda been a used car salesman instead of a battrey schill", Doubting Thomas said less than half jokingly.

"The median sold price hasn't changed by more than $5,000 in the last 6 months", the Bunny drummed on. "Its going down by another 10 to 15%", Thomas allowed wishing he hadn't been baited into a real conversation.

"Says who?", the Bunny retorted with a stiffening spine. "Lots of people", Thomas allowed trying to remember one of them with credibility that mattered.

"That has little to do with a resort market", the Bunny affirmed.

"Predictions of more foreclosures are all over the internet", Thomas defended now realizing he had sunk into a real conversation abyss.

"Come on Tom, you know that most  foreclosures in South Lake Tahoe are smaller, market entry homes in iffy condition", the Bunny interjected, "that's not what you want!"

"That's true, I do want a nicer house", Thomas replied thinking the first real mistake he made today was getting out of bed.

"And besides that, South Lake Tahoe is made up of nonconforming neighborhoods",  the Energizer Bunny said rapid fire, "which means there is little effect if any of a foreclosure on a nearby house that isn't…"

"Did you get a real estate license while I wasn't looking?", Thomas interjected.

"And besides that, there are more short sales than foreclosures these days, and short sales on average sell for only $10,000 less than non-distressed homes…"

He's lost his mind, Thomas thought as the Bunny rattled on.

"And when the interest rates go up by one point, it'll cost you more than whatever you think you're going to save…"

Shaking his head in overwhelmed bewilderment Thomas wished that Energizer batteries had never been invented.

"So, what are you thinking about?", the Bunny concluded. "Huh?", Thomas uttered caught off guard at the sudden end of yet another Bunny monologue.

"Are you more interested in being smart, or buying a house?", the Bunny asked interrogatingly.

For some reason Doubting Thomas was remembering the song lyric "we gotta get outta this place, if it's the last thing we ever do"…

"Living in Lake Tahoe is about lifestyle, it's not about trying to out smart a real estate condition", the Bunny said as if ordained (yet he knew what he said was true anyway).

Thomas inched toward an open door, suddenly remembering his was a right to breathe.

"So, trying to outsmart the market is actually keeping you from having a house in Lake Tahoe, which isn't very smart at all", the Bunny concluded while noticing that Thomas was almost out the front door.

"Where are you going?" the Bunny asked hurt that another diatribe opportunity was abating.

"To meet with my real estate agent", Thomas said sheepishly, "and buy the house I saw before this one!"

"Where is it?", beamed the Bunny.

"Not on your life", Thomas said completely relieved.

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$1,500 in cash to help some Owners relocate…

We found this interesting, a new approach to the US foreclosure crisis. Rather than focusing on trying to keep defaulting owners in their homes, here's a new approach: paying some of them to leave.

This latest government program will allow owners to sell for less than they owe and will give them a little cash to speed them on their way.

The New York Times article states this is one of the administration’s most aggressive attempts to grapple with a problem that has defied solutions.

Yes, what this means is some government subsidy… of short sales.

To take effect on April 5th, the program is set up to somewhat incentivize the various parties in a short sale: the homeowner, the lender, the investor that owns the loan, and the bank that owns the second mortgage on the property if there is one.

Under the new program, the servicing bank will get $1,000. Another $1,000 can go toward a second loan. For the first time the government would give money to the distressed homeowners themselves. They will get $1,500 in “relocation assistance.”

Our first thought in reading this is the "incentives" certainly aren't much, and we wonder just how persuasive an additional $1,000 is to an upside down lender facing significant loss. We of course understand that lenders have been slow to embrace the financial benefits of a short sale vs. a foreclosure, but increasingly these days banks are getting somewhat smarter (see short sale article citing the financial difference between the two here).

Full New York Times article here.

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The Foreclosure Devil appeared in full in South Lake Tahoe, that was it.

In our last article we cite a particular time, May '09, where South Lake Tahoe, CA really began to feel the effect of distressed property sales on our real estate market.

Our market was in decline prior to last May to be sure, but it was a gradual decline that spanned some three plus years.

The South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price for 2006 was $460,000. Again, this does not include the Tahoe Keys. Were the Keys to be included that number is $475,000.

• The median sold price declined 7.6% in 2007 (see chart below).

• It declined another 8.2% in 2008, and…

• It declined 21.8% in 2009, about half of which happened last May.

 A Closer Look at 2006 ?
In terms of house value, our market high was in 2006, though the decline in value started in that year as well. For the first six months of 2006, the median sold price was $475,000, which did include the Tahoe Keys.

The last six months of '06, the median sold price, also including the Keys, was $449,000. In other words, in the last half of the year of our market high, South Lake Tahoe home values declined 5.4% ($26,000).

 Mayday in May ?
It wasn't exactly the personification of the international distress signal, but last May came with a 10% decline in the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price. That decline was over 180-days, of course, but this is where significance was added to the opportunity of reduced property values for home buyers.

We already know that our market was in decline for the last 6 months of 2006, and from then to April, '09, the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price declined from $460,000 to $361,000. Over that 34-month interval, the average decline was 2.9% a month.

Prior to May, '09, the largest decline that appeared in any one month was in June, 2008, where the median sold price dropped 4.2%.

 "Pleased to meet you, I hope you guess my name!'
A lyric from "Sympathy for the Devil" aside, that name is foreclosure, the wolfsbane of real estate value woe that showed up in full, uninvited, in May of last year.

We did have foreclosure sales in South Lake Tahoe before last May, some 20% of all 2008 sales were bank owned properties, but  the median sold price in May came with more of it… and at significantly less value.

 The Details:
The charts below tell the tale, here's what they summarize:

The median sold price in May '09 came with a 34% increase in the number of distressed property sales.

• In the 180-days of home sales before that May, there were 63 distressed properties sold.
• In the 180-days before that, only 47 distressed properties sold.
• In the 180-days after May '9, the number distressed properties sold was 100.

The average number of distressed sales per month changed meaningfully:

• In the 180-days prior to May '09, the average number of distressed homes sold per month was 10.5.
• In the 180-days before that, that same average was 7.8.
• Since May '09, the average number of distressed homes sold per month is 17.2.

The Value of distressed homes sold changed by 15% as well:

• In the 180-days prior to May, '09, the median sold price of distressed homes sold was $271,000.
• 180-days before that, that same number was $320,000.

The two charts below indicate the median sold price of distressed sales in that 6 months leading up to May '09, and the six months before that.

The chart below tracks South Lake Tahoe, CA distressed sales by month since January 1, 2008. It should be noted that the number of 2008 distressed sales is what we could find from a detailed look at every 2008 sale on the South Lake Tahoe MLS. Automatic reporting of distressed sales did not appear in earnest until 2009.

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You know, the South Lake Tahoe median sold price actually increased last month… for the first time since Oct. 2008!

Yes, we know the chart below is a prodigious one, but it contains a full accounting of the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold home prices since we started this blog.

If you are one of our prior readers, then you know we believe the median sold price is the best known indicator of market trends and conditions as it relates to home value.

We always look at the median sold price in four intervals, over 365, 180, 90 and 30 days (here). Its important to us to see where we've been, so we can best be helpful about where we are now.

We've been studying the median sold price since 2002. In doing that, we have crunched the numbers in exactly the same method every time since then. This gives us an apples to apples comparison, so to speak, a continuum which is essential we think to accurate real estate reporting.

Since the South Lake Tahoe real estate market changed from a strong sellers market to an equally strong buyers market, a timely descent, if you will, which started around labor day of 2005 (Katina), it has taken about 6 months on average to sell a house. At present that number is 152 days, and as such we feel that a focus on a six months market, which is 180 days, gives the truest reflection of market trend and condition.

When considering the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price, we may take one of our neighborhoods, The Tahoe Keys, out of the mix.  If so, that is always disclosed, and we do that because it is a singularly unique neighborhood, the only one in South Lake Tahoe that has waterfront access through backyard canals. When The Tahoe Keys is included in the median sold price mix, it normally skews the number higher between 3% to 5.5% (see second chart below).

 Current Median Sold Price Summary   : (what's new, if anything, and we're looking at 180-day results… excluding the Tahoe Keys)

• The current South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price is $303,750.

• It was that same number a month ago.

• The median sold price has not varied by more than $5,000 in the last 6 months (since October).

• With the exception of last month, which saw an increase in the median sold price of 1.3% ($3,750), we have not seen an increase in the median sold price since October, 2008

• In other words, the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price has declined, or stayed the same, every month in the last 17 months… except last month.

 A Special Note : (if we had to point a finger at just one thing)

Note the red outline around two cells in the chart below. This we think is when and where things changed most dramatically.

This, in May of '09, is when South Lake Tahoe, CA really began to feel the effect of distressed property sales on our real estate market.

We're working on a separate report on this and details will follow shortly.

The chart below indicates median sold price results as reported on this blog since April, 2007.

The chart below indicates South Lake Tahoe, Ca median sold prices by year since 2000. Note the differences in home values when the Tahoe Keys is included, and then not.

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South Lake Tahoe is just that kind of place… where we might be careful about what we wish for!

In thinking about real estate market growth, just to refresh our memory, what one is really talking about is two things: (1) an increase in demand, which begets (2) an increase in price.

Housing recovery, which means industry growth, is certainly one of the key concepts we're involved with as a country these days. Needless to say, there is opinion aplenty to be found from all angles, and it comes to all of us in overladen bushels, it seems, from just about anywhere.

One of the things we're noticing, oh I we all love human nature, is most of the folks who have opinion about housing recovery are pretty much sure their position is the one that is paramount above all others.

There is no dearth of housing industry experts; self acclaimed mostly, they are everywhere. Yes, Delphi would be crowded with all of the real estate oracles we have these days.

Thankfully, our job here is to report, though we too have an opinion from time to time. One of those that we have now has much to do with the idea of being careful what you wish for… especially if one is on the buyer side of the equation.

The question is simply this, who will benefit most when the housing market comes back around? Again.

South Lake Tahoe, like most places, is very much a buyers market right now. It won't stay that way forever; it never does. This is yet another way of saying that all real estate markets eventually recover. They always do. A buyer's market then becomes a seller's market. The real question is when.

According to some Delphi regulars, lets group them as market optimists, the bulls of the pantheon, it is their fervent belief that recovery has already started. Then there is of course the roar of the delphic bears that we haven't even begun to see the real down market yet.

Our take is the market still has time before we can point to a decided shift in the force, if you will. The two most telltale things we're looking at is the US jobs market (here and here, recently), and interest rates.

Obviously the home buyer who is currently thinking of becoming a resort homeowner in South Lake Tahoe wants to buy while it is still a buyers market, that's just good common sense. The key for that buyer, we think, is to buy anytime before interest rates go up. That could be anytime between right now and when they eventually do.

 A fun example to consider :
We've written about this before, but lets review what happens when interest rates rise compared to a further decline in the price of a house. Some bears say that the market will further correct by another 10% -15% decline in house prices. Lets use this as our exercise.

• A house would sell for $300,000 today.

• It may or may not sell for $270,000 in 3 months (10% less).

• It may or may not sell for $255,000 in 6 months (15% less).

• It is possible to get a 30-yr fixed loan with 20% down and zero points for a buyer with good credit today for 4.75%.

• This means a buyer of a $300,000 house in South Lake Tahoe today could have a monthly mortgage payment of $1,251. (Calculator we used here, remember to account for 20% down, so the loan amount reflects that.)

• The monthly payment on this same house would be $1,288 if the interest rate were 5%.

• If the house sold for 10% less ($270,000), but the interest rate were 6% (which was a very low interest rate the last time the market was up), the monthly mortgage payment would be $1,295.

• If the interest rate were 6.5%, which was a rather normal interest rate throughout much of the housing ramp up between 2003 and 2005, the monthly mortgage payment would be $1,365.

• If the house sold for 15% less ($255,000), but the interest rate were 6% (which was a very low interest rate the last time the market was up), the monthly mortgage payment would be $1,223.

• If the interest rate were 6.5%, which was a rather normal interest rate throughout much of the housing ramp up between 2003 and 2005, the monthly mortgage payment would be $1,289.

 What this example means : (deductions to conclude)

• If there is a 1 point rise in interest rates, which will eventually come, saving 10%, or $30,000 off of a $300,000 house will cost a buyer $44 more each month over 30 years ($15,840).

• This example certainly becomes more significant with the inevitable increase in home prices that comes from a sellers market (this is the careful what you wish for part).

• And it becomes even more significant when interest rates become 6.5% or higher, and we all know there is historic precedence for that.

• If we were intending on buying in South Lake Tahoe anytime in the near future, we'd be thinking about these things. (Sometimes saving money off the cost of a house costs you more in the long run!)

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The Key to South Lake Tahoe housing recovery lies in the US jobs market.

We've written about this a lot, and it's kinda worth repeating. The return of a stronger real estate market is tied to the US jobs market. We think pretty much the country knows that.

Consequently, it makes sense that housing industry prognosticators, and particularly those who would benefit by a more robust real estate market are searching high and low for any spark that might indicate a return to a hot market.

We certainly would like to see more South Lake Tahoe real estate activity; that's how we make a living. But we have to be careful here, like all of us, not to be overly enthusiastic with predictions of market growth. It's not the prediction of market growth, though, that can be tricky, it's taking premature action based on those predictions, whatever that action might be.

For us in particular, the idea of market growth is seductive; it simply means more, which in an economic / family support sense is always more attractive than less.

The cornerstone of our professional real estate practice, taking this discussion into context, is this blog. Our tag line, "information you can trust about Lake Tahoe and us" means something to us.

So much so, we're constantly aware that what we do here is tied to that trust, and we realize that being overly enthusiastic about anything has the potential of toying with that sacred trust.

As seductive as spark hunting might be, and we've certainly succumbed to enthusiasm before (we all have), we have become comfortable with adding caution into the mix when reporting about sparks, whether they be real, hoped for or imagined.

Now, we guess, we feel more comfortable with calling your attention to two CNNMoney.com articles. "First Spark of a Jobs Recovery" appeared yesterday, and we all want to see that, we realize, because it has to start somewhere, but we're not willing to bet the farm so to speak that this is necessarily it.

Here's a few bullet points in this article:

• There are signs that the worst of US job loss is over.

• Joel Prakken, chairman of ADP researcher Macroeconomic Advisers, sees a turnaround on the horizon. "If the recent trend continues, private employment could rise next month for the first time in two years."

• A separate employment survey released earlier in the week concluded that the nation's tiniest businesses are already adding workers.

• Firms with less than 20 employees added nearly 40,000 net new jobs in February.

• Tiny companies tend to be the first to cut staff when the economy weakens — and the first to hire again when it improves.

The second CNNMoney.com article "Job Cuts Slow" also came out yesterday. Here are a few of its bullet points:

• The pace of U.S. job cuts continued to slow last month.

• Private-sector employers cut 20,000 jobs in February, the fewest since February 2008 when employment first began to decline.

• February was the 11th straight month that job losses narrowed from the previous month.

• The service sector reported job growth for a third consecutive month after a 21-month decline.

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